According to the Winterberry Group predictions, online spending will post growth of 14.9 percent to an estimated $368.8 billion while offline spending will reverse 2023 declines and record ad spend growth of 4.1 percent to $203.1 billion, primarily driven by the political and major event cycle, the Winterberry Group predicts.

Among trends Biegel identified in his analysis:

• MACROECONOMICS: While a recession was averted in 2023 – continued high interest rates, inflation over target, and an uptick in unemployment – will stoke persistent uncertainty, dampening the outlook.
• HOT DIGITAL GETS HOTTER: While “traditional” digital spend – display, search and social — gets the lion-share of digital ad dollars, and should post double-digit growth again next year, the hottest categories are predicted to be CTV (30.4 percent growth), video (16.6 percent growth), and influencer (14.3 percent growth). Digital channels overall will account for 64% of ad spend.
• THE DATA LAYER: Data is no longer (just) a channel play – data for direct mail, data for email, data for interest-based advertising online, data for addressable and connected television – but rather an enterprise-wide intelligence infrastructure that supports media mix modeling, omnichannel marketing, triggered marketing, targeting, attribution and other ad-focused measurements. Still, legacy customer relationship management systems mean data silos linger, and applied intelligence is hampered.
• GENERATIVE AI AND MACHINE LEARNING: As privacy laws proliferate, at least at the state level for now, the new uptick in generative artificial intelligence (AI) adoption, and the machine learning that enables the algorithms that support creative versioning and 1:1 marketing will result in new regulatory scrutiny – bringing the potential for new data and AI restrictions. Advertisers and marketers will continue to invest in these tools, all the same.
• NAME THAT IDENTIFIER: Agencies and brands are reassessing their media spend, as attribution becomes harder with the fading third-party cookie. A higher reliance on media mix modeling – and watching for incremental changes in sales, leads and traffic – and a renewed focus on attention metrics collectively should ensue.
• OFFLINE WOES: Offline spending posted steeper declines than anticipated a year ago – with direct mail spend off by 9.8 percent in 2023, joining the print declines of magazine and newspapers. Unlike the latter print categories, however, direct mail spending should eke out a 1.5-percent increase this year.

Results of the full study, as a PDF, are available for download directly from Winterberry Group:  https://winterberrygroup.com/marketing-advertising-data-outlook-presentation-2024

For 17 of the 18 years, Annual Outlook has been supported by a generous event sponsorship by Alliant. JoAnne Dunn, chief executive officer, Alliant reminded the crowd “you think our pens are good, our data’s so much better” – the former of which were used for active note taking among attendees – and who acknowledged Winterberry Group for its ongoing advisory role for strategic guidance. That advice, for the 18^th year at MCNY, was well on display.